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Sales Forecasting
Sales Forecasting

Sales Forecasting

Sales Forecasting – Scenario Planning

  • Analyzing the promotional activities by the business in the past and measuring sales lift
  • Business question - Can we estimate the expected volume returns given a particular level of promotion?
  • A look-ahead approach
  • Mutivariate/ External regressor time series modeling
  • Additional advantage - can be used to estimate volume gains from multiple promotional scenarios beforehand
Sales Forecasting – Scenario Planning

Sales Forecasting - Impact Estimation

  • Business intervention, say a promotion, causes a lift in the volume sales
  • Objective – Can we estimate the volume impact of the intervention, given that the effect of the intervention trails off?
  • A retrospective study
  • Causal Impact (algorithm developed by Google) estimates the counterfactual, given an intervention
  • Essentially estimates what the baseline sales would have been, had there been no intervention
Sales Forecasting - Impact Estimation