Sales Forecasting-Machine Learning and AI

Sales Forecasting

Sales Forecasting

Use Cases

Sales Forecasting – Scenario Planning

Analyzing the promotional activities by the business in the past and measuring sales lift
Business question - Can we estimate the expected volume returns given a particular level of promotion?
A look-ahead approach
Mutivariate/ External regressor time series modeling
Additional advantage - can be used to estimate volume gains from multiple promotional scenarios beforehand

Sales Forecasting – Scenario Planning

Sales Forecasting - Impact Estimation

Business intervention, say a promotion, causes a lift in the volume sales
Objective – Can we estimate the volume impact of the intervention, given that the effect of the intervention trails off?
A retrospective study
Causal Impact (algorithm developed by Google) estimates the counterfactual, given an intervention
Essentially estimates what the baseline sales would have been, had there been no intervention

Sales Forecasting - Impact Estimation